Referendum Comment

The politics of getting Macavity to surrender on the issue of granting us the chance to give or to withhold our whole-hearted consent to the EU Constitution to which Vanity Blair so carelessly signed us up in June are so potentially damaging for Macavity that one is driven to wonder if this was not perhaps the poison pill that Blair left in Macavity's Red Box.

Whether or not Macavity will yield on the referendum is important in two ways aside from the principle of the Constitution itself, which remains enormously important in itself.

1. The related issues of trust and honesty. Trust in the sense of the breach of promise implicit in failing on a major matter to honour their manifesto commitment; honesty in the sense that GB and the Junta can easily be demonstrated to be lying when they assert that the Constitution is dead;

2. Forcing him into giving a referendum will be an enormous political defeat for him given that he and the Junta have invested so much effort into trying to stonewall demands for a referendum.

It will be a humiliating defeat on a major issue of policy, in part inflicted because he cannot carry all his Parliamentary party with him. He knows full well that a defeat of this kind will involve a loss of prestige and make him look weak and his party divided.

He knows too that there is a second whammy wrapped up in it which is that his recommendation for a 'Yes' vote (or a 'No' vote depending how weaselly the question is) will be resoundingly defeated with all the humiliation that that implies and all the explaining he will then have to do to his very very irritated EuroNabob colleagues as to why he has allowed their precious power-grab to be trashed, again.

And he also realises that the larger the majority against the Constitution the greater the question mark over whether and to what extent the UK should be engaged in Le Grand Projet.

The fallout from losing a referendum are such that his Government will be bogged down in things he desperately does not want to be bogged down in, namely the political killing fields of Europe.

Getting voters in those circumstances to focus on their agenda will be almost impossible as he shuttles off endlessly to Brussels to negotiate his way out of the mess and then has to come back and try and explain away yet another piece of devious compromise that people then pick over like Hyenas.

Just ask Major about how debilitating that is.

This scenario provides for so much opportunity to destroy the Brown Premiership that it would be one of history's biggest bungles to let him off the hook.

That is all before we consider the nature of what it is he is trying to railroad this country into and how much damage that will do to his reputation as previous hoodwinked electors realise just how and the extent to which Macavity, Milliband, Murphy and all the rest of the Brown Milice have been lying through their teeth about what this Constitutional Treaty does.

After he is rumbled he may well wish that Scotland does get independence and does not have an extradition treaty with the UK...